The Overlogix Sunday Times #15
USA Edition
Contents
Sources and new landing page
Job Market News
· The Overlogix point of view on the US job market
· Unsolicited advice
US Job Market News
· The likely effect of tariffs
· Government layoffs
General Technology and AI News
Overlogix: Recent Articles
· Upcoming
· Published
· Evergreen Articles
Footnotes
· Your help is welcome!
· LinkedIn
· Substack
Sources and new landing page
As of the Sunday, 23 March 2025 edition, we concentrated our listing of news sources at our special edition: The Overlogix Sunday Times, Special Edition: Switzerland and USA Regional Editions. The new home for The Overlogix Sunday Times is now available.
Subscribers are invited to bookmark this page as an ongoing landing page; new editions will be posted there immediately after publishing. These changes will keep the newsletters shorter.
Job Market News
Overlogix: We tend to pay little attention to job market forecasts, since they are often wrong and there are so many incentives to skew the numbers for business and / or political reasons. However, readers are interested, and so we’ll provide a few, heavily curated stories on the topic.
The Overlogix point of view on the US job market
There are two very important stories that directly affect job seekers:
1. Massive US Government layoffs and firings
2. Tariffs
The first will flood the employment market with new job seekers, albeit former government employees, working jobs the new administration considers supernumerary. Some of these will be considered good hires by some companies, and so job hunters can expect added market noise for the foreseeable future.
Our perception is that Trump will have time to only take a big bite out of the federal workforce, but won’t be able to eat the whole elephant in the time he has left. NB: the federal workforce is massive; one estimate was 2.4M, not counting the Post Office nor the active duty military.
On the second point, experts are divided. Largely speaking, analysts with a longer time window and / or a more Trump-friendly or conservative bent view the tariff situation as a rather typical Trump negotiating tactic, intended to bring recalcitrant trading partners to the negotiating table. As of a few days ago, the news was that 75 different countries have already called the White House requesting trade negotiations.
Since we’ve read and possess a copy of Trumps “The Art of the Deal”, there is some merit to this point of view. On the other hand, especially coupled with large-scale government reductions in force, we see a lot of job market pain in the short to medium term, and aren’t looking for a robust job market this year. Trump does tend to do exactly what he campaigned to do, as he did his first term.
We expect at least some disruption of international trade, but are less certain a recession is upon us. Instead, what we see over the next few years is a fairly massive privatization and reduction of the federal work force, a fair amount of deregulation, a reduction of direct taxes in favor of some degree of tariffs, extent unknown, re-shoring of manufacturing, and a chaotic, difficult job market throughout 2025, with possible recovery sometime in 2026.
Politically, the Republicans need to orchestrate approximately six months of good economic news prior to the 2026 elections, in order to hold on to Congress, and this reality informs our estimates. We’re therefore looking at May 2026 for the turnaround; until then, the job market can be expected to suck.
We cannot emphasize this enough: if you are looking for work where you live, local market conditions are decisive. We recall a time we were unemployed, and discovered that one local company had laid off ten (10) Oracle DBAs, our specialty at the time.
As soon as we read the story, we realized that we wouldn’t be able to get a job until after almost all of the ten had found work, since we were in the top income bracket for that category at the time. Similar situations apply for everybody else, and so we recommend job hunters become experts in the specific happenings inside their own markets. It matters a lot.
Unsolicited advice
Our advice: if you have a job you can live with, keep it. Job-hopping right now is hazardous activity.
If you are looking for a job, you are going to need to ensure that your LinkedIn profile is nearly perfect, carve out a list of the twenty or so most desirable companies you’d like to work for, thoroughly research them, apply for jobs directly on the company websites wherever possible, carefully match resumes to job descriptions, and network your tail off (seek advice on these, there certainly is plenty of it).
We cover the conventional (read: everybody’s doing this; it is expected) side of job hunting in a LinkedIn article, and that advice still holds. However, it isn’t enough; serious job hunters need to figure out their own unique networking strategies and tactics, and get both aggressive (in a good way) and consistent about contacting people, developing relationships with them, and (eventually) asking for a job, all without appearing desperate. We get that this is a tall order, and are open to alternatives that work.
You might also consider creating an online portfolio to show off your stuff to prospective employers. We have two; one on LinkedIn (250 articles as of this writing) and the other here on Substack (34 articles and counting). It can’t hurt, and might make the difference between getting ignored as usual and getting noticed and remembered. If you do create one, be sure to promote the hell out of it (use your favorite AI, with caution, for initial advice). Admittedly, it’s a lot of work, so do it between job applications.
If you can, start your own business, expecting at least 12 to 24 months of pain and anxiety before it begins to pay off. Remember, hundreds of thousands of quality job seekers are in the same boat, some are desperate, others unscrupulous, a few downright nasty. Sell off that garage full of junk you don’t need on Craigslist for a little cash in pocket.
US Job Market News
Financial Times: US Employment (undated) This page is a collection of articles, in reverse chronological order, covering various aspects of the US job market. The Financial Times has a good record of objectivity, and so we consider this source to be reliable.
Regrettably, most of these stories are behind a paywall; they do offer 4 weeks of reading for a buck, so readers have some time to check their offerings out. NB: When it comes to news, you literally get what you pay for. If a resource is free, then you are the product being sold.
The effect of the job market on the economy 07.04.2025 “The labor market is maintaining momentum just as the U.S. economy confronts new challenges tied to the Trump Administration’s rollout of sweeping new tariffs. U.S. employers added as many jobs in March 2025 as in the two previous months combined, based on the latest U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.”
US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation Summary 04.04.2025 “Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased in retail trade, partially reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Federal government employment declined.”
Overlogix: Be very careful about BLS numbers. They get revised frequently and are of questionable value. We suspect politics has a lot to do with how the numbers are massaged and reported.
The likely effect of tariffs
What is the job market's future after Trump's tariffs? 08.04.2025 “The job market was much healthier than expected in March, but some economic analysts are worried that the cascading effect of President Donald Trump's blanket tariffs could push hiring in the other direction. While the market added 228,000 jobs last month — far higher than the monthly average of 158,000 jobs over the past year — financial experts are expressing skepticism that this job boom is here to stay.
Others say that while the economy could crater due to Trump's tariffs on almost every country in the world, the job market itself may not bear the brunt. However, this does not necessarily mean that labor won't feel some economic malaise.”
US labor market healthy on the eve of Trump's sweeping tariffs 04.04.2025
· “Nonfarm payrolls increase 228,000 in March
· January and February payrolls tally revised down by 48,000
· Returning supermarket strikers boost retail payrolls
· Unemployment rate rises to 4.2% from 4.1%
· Average hourly earnings gain 0.3%; up 3.8% year-on-year”
Government layoffs
Federal workers are dealing with chaotic work environments. Here’s how to manage the uncertainty 10.04.2025 “Government workers are experiencing unprecedented change as the current administration fulfills its promise to drastically shrink the federal workforce. Mass layoffs with no contingency plans, sudden and conflicting management directives, and funding cuts are causing federal workers to experience significant stress and other struggles. For those currently employed in these agencies or at government contractor firms, or anyone wanting to support the federal workforce, here are some strategies for navigating a chaotic work environment.”
US workers feel effects of Trump cuts: ‘I am seeing my work dry up’ 08.04.2025 “Consumer confidence in the US has dropped in March to the lowest level in four years. At least 60,000 federal civil servants have been fired in recent months, in addition to about 25,000 probationary employees who have been ordered by courts to be reinstated.
The federal layoffs have also created challenges in the private sector, with contractors and businesses reliant on federal workers or agencies as customers hit hard.”
US announced job cuts surge in March on Doge hit, recruitment firm Challenger says 03.04.2025 “Layoffs announced by U.S. employers surged in March to the highest level since the pandemic recession as the government purged federal workers and contractors to slash spending.
Global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Thursday that planned job cuts increased 60% to 275,240 last month, the highest level since May 2020, when the economy was reeling from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was also the third highest monthly total on record.”
General Technology and AI News
Apple Has Few Incentives to Start Making IPhones in U.S., Despite Trump's Trade War With China 10.04.2025 “The disincentives for Apple shifting its production domestically include a complex supply chain that it began building in China during the 1990s. It would take several years and cost billions of dollars to build new plants in the U.S., and then confront Apple with economic forces that could triple the price of an iPhone, threatening to torpedo sales of its marquee product.”
OpenAI Countersues Elon Musk in Legal Dispute Over ChatGPT Maker's Business Ambitions 10.04.2025 “OpenAI is suing Elon Musk for unfair competition and interfering with its business relationships with investors and customers, escalating a legal battle between the ChatGPT maker and the billionaire who helped bankroll the artificial intelligence startup a decade ago.”
Former Facebook Executive Tells Senate Committee Company Undermined US National Security With China 09.04.2025 “’We are engaged in a high-stakes AI arms race against China. And during my time at Meta, company executives lied about what they were doing with the Chinese Communist Party to employees, shareholders, Congress, and the American public,’ Wynn-Williams said in her prepared testimony.”
Microsoft Says It's 'Slowing or Pausing' Some AI Data Center Projects, Including $1B Plan for Ohio 09.04.2025 “Microsoft said it is “slowing or pausing” some of its data center construction, including a $1 billion project in Ohio, the latest sign that the demand for artificial intelligence technology that drove a massive infrastructure expansion might not need quite as many powerful computers as expected.”
Overlogix: We view this as yet another sign of a major tech bust, this time for AI. We aren’t the only ones who predicted such a thing; there has been so much AI development, so fast, that industry and government have years to catch up. Adoption has been slow, and for good reasons: the best available AIs are still unreliable, and the more the producers try to train them to do, the more unreliable they get. Profitable AI is narrow AI, trained to only do a few things very well. AGI is largely a pipe dream, fun to think about, but disastrously expensive to do.
Overlogix: Recent Articles
Upcoming
Installation and configuration of Microsoft SQL Server in Linux This project, like the below Gemini migration, demonstrates a practical use for AGI candidates like Claude. We asked Claude to help us through this unfamiliar topic and documented the results. Since we need this for a client, the installation is rather urgent and so has been prioritized.
Migration project using Google Gemini to produce the implementation and configuration steps. We’ve been developing, for our own purposes, an internal wiki built on the same platform as Wikipedia, MediaWiki. The interesting part is that we’re using Google Gemini as our research concierge and assistant for this project. The wiki has outgrown the el-cheapo XAMPP Windows installation and must be migrated to our newly rebuilt Linux server.
Published
Databases: Fast and Dirty Install of MS SQL Server on Windows 11.04.2025 The third article in our ongoing series on SQL Server, Microsoft’s flagship relational database system. Here, we install SQL Server on our Windows workstation, primarily for portability, but also so we can have an installation of “the real thing” to compare with our upcoming Linux deployment. The article blazes through the absolute minimum configurations needed to get the database up and running, and prove that it works.
Microsoft SQL Server Client Software 01.04.2025 The second in our MS SQL Server series delves into the various client-side (Windows) software suites available for a SQL Server deployment, whether the database is installed on Windows or (as in our case) Linux. Note: Azure Data Studio is deprecated and will go out of support in February 2026. Replace with Visual Studio Code, per Microsoft’s instructions.
Databases: Introduction to Microsoft SQL Server 24.03.2025 This brief introduction to MS SQL Server serves two purposes: (1) it supplies decision makers with an overview of where MSSQL is, and is not, a good choice for a data storage system, and (2) it serves as an index for a series of specialized articles detailing installation, configuration, usage and maintenance of the database system. As new articles are written, they will be indexed and linked in this article. We expect at least one new article this week. As always, all of our articles are always indexed, by subject matter, at our Table of Context.
Evergreen Articles
Windows Security 101 17.2.2025 If you run Windows, you need to pay close attention to the security of your systems. In-depth article covering three critical practices we believe vital to securing your home and office computers: regular checkpoints (Windows system restore points), backups of both personal and system files, and aggressive antimalware software, in addition to Windows Defender. Yes, you need to implement all three, as soon as possible.
Business: Improving Your LinkedIn Feed Long-Term 25.1.2025 Yes, your LinkedIn feed is full of garbage. No, it’s not going to change anytime soon. This article explains several ways to systematically improve your LinkedIn feed. So far, one cannot get rid of all the garbage, but you can get rid of some of it on an ongoing basis and make LI a more useful tool.
Footnotes
Thank you for reading this article!
More information about Overlogix can be found at Welcome to Overlogix!
We currently publish on both LinkedIn (general interest articles, summaries, TL;DR’s: easier and faster to read) and Substack (in-depth articles, how-to’s, technical studies and new approaches to business).
Your help is welcome!
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LinkedIn
· Introduction: Welcome to Overlogix!
· The Overlogix Sunday Times Our newsletter, with occasional specials, published roughly every two weeks.
· Master Index All our articles can be found from here in two clicks.
· The Overlogix Table of Context All Overlogix articles in reverse chronological order
· Applied Artificial Intelligence: Index of Articles One of our specialties is Applied AI. This index lists all relevant articles on the topic, in reverse chronological order.
· Applied AI: Stories in the News Our semi-permanent, curated listing of interesting and important news from the world of artificial intelligence, from many different sources.
· Index: Getting a Job Up until recently, getting a job, much less a good job, has been a nightmare for most job seekers. We publish articles on how and why this is so, and what job hunters can do to find the perfect job for them. We also supply credible external resources, so people can consider their alternatives.
· Starting a B2B Business For everyone who can, we heartily recommend starting your own business. The tools are there, and there has never been a better time to do it.
· Building Our Own Robot We’re automating Overlogix from the start, and this series of articles tells exactly how we are doing it.
· Rebuilding the Linux Server: Index of Articles Running AI on your own machine (recommended) requires a modern, up-to-date operating system, and often a lot of additional software infrastructure. This series, dedicated to exactly that sort of system administration, details what we have done to build a powerful server that runs both databases and artificial intelligence, locally.
· The Gospel According to ChatGPT Conversations with various AIs and additional articles on the various challenges associated with actually making profitable use of artificial intelligence.
· TL;DR: Index of Fast Reads Brief, fast reads on various topics in artificial intelligence. If you are a beginner at AI, or a busy human needing fast and factual explanations of complicated technical topics, this is the place to start.
· TL;DR: Overlogix Artificial Intelligence Mini-Wiki Same Fast Reads as previous but arranged in a mini-wiki format some folks may like better.
Substack
· Welcome to the Overlogix Substack
· Overlogix: Table of Context Index to our Substack articles arranged by topics.
· Criteria for Paid Content Rules for what goes behind our paywall.
· Curated IT and AI Sources Annotated links to sites and YouTube channels we think are valuable.